How Does Armed Conflict Influence Population? A Complex Systems Case Study of Nepal
Published:
Authors: Wang, W.J., & Williams, N.E.
This manuscript investigates whether armed conflict reduces population size, or whether its effects unfold through a more complex combination of mortality, migration, marriage, and fertility processes.
Using an agent-based model situated in Nepal during the 1996-2006 armed conflict and informed by Chitwan Valley Family Study panel data, the paper examines how conflict shapes population size and growth over time. The analysis models the dynamic interaction of marriage, marital fertility, and migration under prolonged violence rather than assuming that conflict affects population only through deaths and out-migration.
The main finding is counterintuitive: population size and growth increase substantially during the conflict period. Although growth rates later return to lower and more stable levels after the conflict ends, the overall population remains larger for decades in scenarios with more severe conflict. The manuscript attributes this pattern primarily to sharp increases in marriage rates and marital fertility during the period of violence.
Recommended citation: Wang, W., & Williams, N. E. (2026). How Does Armed Conflict Influence Population? A Complex Systems Case Study of Nepal (v1) [Preprint]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21079163.