Working Papers

This study investigates how female employment and family formation trajectories jointly intersect with welfare regimes to shape later life health outcomes. Using a machine learning-based g-computation framework, it estimates the effects of typical employment and family trajectories across Scandinavian, Mediterranean, and Corporatist welfare regimes. The results show that health advantages and disadvantages are shaped less by roles themselves than by the institutional contexts in which women combine and sustain them across the life course.

This paper examines whether subjective and objective health histories are interchangeable in predicting later-life health, and whether discrepancies between them add predictive information. Using longitudinal Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data, I compare held-out predictions of subsequent subjective health and objective health burden. Subjective histories best predict later subjective health, while objective histories best predict later objective burden; discrepancies distinguish risk but add little once both histories are included, and predictive performance is broadly stable across educational groups.

This paper examines how gendered work and family trajectories interact with institutional gender equality to shape later-life health for women and men. Using Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data from 14 countries, I linked employment and family histories between ages 18 and 50 to gender equality information from the V-DEM dataset to examine their joint influence on self-rated health, depressive symptoms, and quality of life. Sustained labour market exclusion predicts poorer health, especially for men; gender-equal contexts are generally beneficial, but gains are concentrated among people with stable employment and family resources, while women benefit across trajectories.

This manuscript examines whether the educational attainment polygenic index shapes years of schooling and first-job socioeconomic status directly or primarily through the social mechanisms highlighted in classic status-attainment research. Using Wisconsin Longitudinal Study data and structural equation modeling, it shows that most of the association between EA-PGI and educational attainment is indirect, operating through family background, school rank, aspirations, and encouragement from significant others.

This study examines how armed conflict influences population size and growth using an agent-based model situated in Nepal during the 1996-2006 armed conflict. Contrary to intuitive expectations, the analysis finds that conflict can increase population size and growth during the conflict period, largely through sharp increases in marriage and marital fertility, with effects that persist long after the violence ends.